2012 Election ~ A Third Party Candidate?

As election time rolls around once more there is a growing amount of fears in everyone’s minds. Who will be the GOP nominee? Who will be the Vice Presidential candidate? Will we be able to beat Obama out of office? What will Obama do next? However, one many people ignore is one that holds a much greater threat. Will there be a third party candidate to run in November? This is a very serious question we must ask ourselves because the implications of a third party candidate running are grave. Let’s examine some third party hopefuls and see if there is a chance of a third party run for a major candidate and what impacts will that have on the election?

Now there are some of you out there saying, “That’s a silly question to ask. There are always people running in the third party!” Well, to save ourselves the discrepancy and the unneeded sarcasm of talking about some of the random third party candidates like Jimmy McMillan let’s simply focus on the big ones. The first potential that comes to mind as a major runner would be Donald Trump. In early polls his highest result placed him only 2 points behind President Obama in a head-to-head ballot. However, controversy has arrived over the question of; will he actually run at all? It all comes down to whether he values his show more or the presidency? Giving up the chance to run an earlier campaign, he decided to run another season of his show. This places him now, right before the GOP nomination. This is a strategic time to jump in the race. In April the GOP will choose who will run against Obama, but this provides Trump a chance to flank the majority of Republicans. If he makes a delayed and built up jump into the election at this time he has a slight chance of stealing the lime-light away from the nominee. However, will he actually do this? Is he really this serious about the whole thing? Well according to himself as of this January 29^th, he is. He said that he is still keeping his mind open about a potential third party run if the GOP does not endorse someone that he believes in and can beat Obama.

Besides Donald Trump, there is only one other potential for running third party. This potential is Ron Paul. Ron Paul is an interesting case, because to the understanding of everyone he should have run third party to begin with, because he is a Libertarian. Why he went for the Republican endorsement we’ll never know, but the fact still remains that he is there and a contender. Lately he hasn’t been doing too well in the polls, in fact he has never done too well in the polls. Ron Paul has said on multiple occasions that he will never let down his supports nor let the money they have donated to him go to waste. Does this mean he will never give up and continue the “good fight” until the end? Well, in some interpretations it can; however, as many of his constituents may believe he will run third party, reason points to an emphatic, “no.” Ron Paul has said himself that he would not run third party. That’s good enough for me, running third party after he just said he would not will hurt him too much to even have a chance. Besides, with his constituency so low, he wouldn’t have much of an impact even if he did. This pretty much rules him out and leaves the focus on Trump.

So, why does it matter if someone runs third party or not? This is a free country and everyone has an equal chance. This is very true; however, there are some major impacts of someone of great constituency running third party. Donald Trump has the highest possible chance for running third party, so let’s use him as an example. The problem with a third party bid is lies in the basis that we have a two party system of elections. Let’s say Romney is the GOP nominee. In polls Romney may have 50% of the vote and Obama has the other 50%. If Trump enters the race as a third party he initiates what is called the “spoiler effect.” The spoiler effect is essentially splitting the vote for a party. Trump always has supporters whether he runs or not. If he does not run his supporters instead back Romney because he is the candidate that most closely supports their viewpoint. If Trump enters the race then his supporters now shift over to him. An example of a poll with Trump as a third party candidate may look something like this: 25% support Romney, 25% support Trump, and 50% support Obama. With the vote split between the republican party, in a winner take all system like we have, Obama would be reelected for a second term, because he had the majority of the vote. This happened once before when Clinton was running for president, it happened both of his runs, but the biggest effect was during his first bid. This is why a third party candidate can provide such a great threat in a presidential election. Although they may mean well, they can cause the very people they are trying to replace to get reelected.